Super Bowl Thoughts

The Patriots are giving a lot of points today, my establishment has them at -12. With all this "stuff" as I like to call it coming out yesterday about the Patriots and spygate in 2001, I think this just gives the Patriots more firepower to unleash a hell of a game to finish the season. I think the Patriots will be firing on all cylinders. Whenever you give Belichick two weeks to prepare for an opponent video cameras or not, be afraid. I expect the Patriots in an easy win and to be crowned the "best team ever" or "best season ever", whatever it is called it will be something we won't be seeing anytime soon. That is unless the Patriots decide to get better and go something like19-0 again next year. I wonder what kind of odds I can get on that!

Final Score: Patriots 34 Giants 17

Couple of Super Bowl Props I like:

• Over 25.5 completions by Tom Brady at -130
  
• Will Tom Brady throw an interception NO at -115
• Will Wes Welker score a TD YES at -105
• Under 15.5 rushing attempts by Brandon Jacobs at -105
  
• First player to score TD Ahmad Bradshaw @ 16/1
• First player to score TD Wes Welker @ 6/1
• Shortest TD of the game over 1.5 yards at -115
• Finally TAILS at -110

Good Luck and enjoy the big game

• Under 44.5 longest FG at -115
  

2.02 Gulfstream Pick Four Play

Gulfstream’s pick four Saturday is a most intriguing sequence of races. The last three races are nice size fields with the Grade I Donn Handicap the third race of the sequence and the 9^th overall at Gulfstream. Let’s see if I can stab this one after getting burned on Thursday.

Race 7 – 7 Furlong Allowance 42K n1x

I’m going to try and nail a single in the first race of the pick four. Referee is a three year old colt trained by Todd Pletcher, and he was a $1.2 million purchase at the 2006 Keeneland September Sales. He broke his maiden in September in solid fashion in a maiden at Turfway Park. Then he tried his hand at the Breeder’s Cup Futurity at Keeneland and did not show a lick. He shortened back up to seven furlongs, moved to the dirt at Churchill, and dropped in class to an allowance race. He finished a game second after a rough trip. He was then shipped out west to Hollywood and tried his hand in another Grade I, the Cashcall Futurity. Once again the distance got him and he finished second to last. Referee has shown very nice works coming into this allowance race and should be the class of the race. If he can get a steady pace to run after, which I think he will get, expect this colt to come with a fury in the final eighth to get an easy win. I would love to see him at his 4/1 morning line odds, but I expect him to be closer to 2/1. So the single is on the 4.

Race 8 – 1 1/8 Mile Maiden 42K

To me this race seems like a wide open maiden event especially going the nice, long distance of a mile and an eighth. My top pick is Sligovitz who is trained by the hot Brian Lynch recently. I love seeing this horse with second time lasix, and I think he is a new horse with lasix. His Beyer number improved greatly and he made a great closing move. With the right trip about two lengths off the pace I think he can win this race. On The Rocks is an intriguing long shot in my mind who I think will improve with the added distance. His last race going a mile two weeks ago was a lackluster affair where he finished 4^th by nine lengths. I like what Ken McPeek does with his young colts after layoffs though, and On The Rocks is racing in his second off a six month layoff. With the right pace in front of him he will come with a super strong kick around the turn and may sneak in a nice long shot victory. I used Juicy Point who is also a Ken McPeek trained colt but has definitely showed the best speed figures out of the field. I choose another long shot as my fourth pick with Stormtalk. He is a D. Wayne Luckas trained colt who was a $800K purchase as a yearling. If his form can match his pedigree he could easily win this race. I will be using the 2,3,5, and 6.

Race 9 – 1 1/8 Mile Donn Handicap 500K

What a wild Grade I this should be come Saturday afternoon. To make it easy I will be using Spring At Last, Dahaar, A.P. Arrow, and Brass Hat. I really don’t know why I picked three of those horses, maybe because they are consistent or classy, but I had so much trouble figuring out who to include in this race it made my head spin. One horse I do like a lot though is Spring At Last. I love what Dough O’Neill does when moving horses from turf to dirt and this five year old has shown that great ability to have a career race when making the move. He should sit in great stalking position and be able to pounce on the leader, Fairbanks or Dahaar, down the stretch. Before I look at the past performances more and confuse myself more I’ll give you my selections of the 2,4,5, and 8. (By the way- click on the link and you will be brought to the past performances of this race.)

Race 10 – 1 1/8 Mile (Turf) Starter Allowance 20K

This race came off to me as a very “blah” race with no one really sticking out to me. I did use three horses and they are pretty chalky. My top pick is Mining For Silver, a 6/1 seven year old gelding trained by Rebecca Maker. He is coming off a solid score at Tampa where he showed a great closing kick at the end of the race. I think stretching out an extra sixteenth of a mile can only help this elderly gelding. I also used Stratostar another Ken McPeek trained eight year old that is usually consistent in these starter allowances. In his last he won by ten lengths but that was on the dirt and now he goes back to the turf again. McPeek is a 25% trainer with that dirt to turf angle, but for some reason this horse just seems to like the dirt a lot and I do not understand why McPeek won’t let him stay on it. The final horse I am using is Chestermite. He gets Eiber Coa and has the tactical speed that will set up perfectly from his outside post. Easily the most consistent performer and most talented out of all these horses he should have a great chance to pick up a nice win. I’ll be using the 8,9, and 11 in this starter allowance.

In review:

Race 7 – .50 Cent Pick Four Play: 4 / 2,3,5,6 / 2,4,5,8 / 8,9,11

Good Luck!

Thursday Night Big Ten Battle

What a fight there will be tonight in California, wait that is politics, I'm talking about the fight in Madison, Wisconsin. The Badgers host the Hoosiers in a battle of the top two in the Big Ten. I have a real strong feeling on this game and it is not for the four point favored home team.

Indiana comes into this game off a difficult loss at home versus Connecticut. That was not one of the better performances by Indiana this year, and if they play anything like they did Saturday they will get slaughtered on the road and only score 50 points. But I think Kelvin Sampson can psyche his team up for this all important Big Ten battle. Eric Gordon is going to have to wake up as well.

Wisconsin is going to pressure Indiana in the backcourt and in the frontcourt, but I believe Indiana has the ball handlers in Gordon, Ellis, and Bassett to limit their turnovers. DJ White will also play well I think versus a undersized Wisconsin front-line. Wisconsin's forwards are big but they just aren't that tall which I think gives White a major advantage in shooting over them and not getting blocked.

Defense is going to be a major factor in this game for Indiana as well. They will need to limit Hughes and Bohannon from the perimeter because if they start knocking down long range shots that usually spells a Badger win. Brian Butch and Marcus Landry are going to score there 10-15 points but you cannot let Hughes or Bohannon go off for 20+ and five or more three pointers.

My x-factor in this game is Indiana G/F Lance Stemler. If he can open up the Badgers defense and knock down some big threes especially early that will give Indiana a major advantage. It will especially open up the inside game for DJ White to pick apart Butch and Co.

Final prediction is 65-63 Hoosiers in a rough game that might not be great on the eyes but will look great on the Hoosiers schedule come tourney time. And it will also give them the top position in the Big Ten by two games.

Last January '08 Thursday Musings

Couple thoughts for you to ponder today...

• Kansas State picked up an impressive win versus Kansas last night in the Little Apple, KSU's first win versus KU at home in 24 YEARS! That is a ridiculous number. I feel bad for those Little Apple people. Michael Beasley was a complete beast last night on both sides of the floor. And what won the game for the Wildcats was there great defense versus Kansas.

• Memphis stayed unbeaten after handling Tom Pender's Houston Cougars last night. The way Memphis ran the fast break last night was like poetry in motion. Derrick rose up the court super fast and then would find someone on the outlet usually CDR for an easy lay up and the foul. They look super good. I cannot wait for their tilt versus Tennessee on Feburary 23. By the way, they are #1 and #2 in the RPI right now, Memphis is the latter.

• Texas A&M rose from the ashes of bubble popping to pick up a big win at home versus Texas. The Aggies dominated Texas in the first half to gain a 46-28 lead and Texas did not have the firepower to comeback. Texas didn't give up though which shows something for this likely NCAA bound team.

• Drake continued their unbeaten run in the MVC after beating Creighton at home 75-65. Creighton once thought of as the top tier in the MVC along with SIU is now 5-5 in the conference and fighting for their lives. This team just does not have any offensive force. The last couple years they had Nate Funk who was outstanding at creating his own shots. Now they have no one. However, they are one of the best teams in the MVC tourney and coach Dana Altman knows when and how to get his team at the top of their game.

• Vandy is falling off the map fast. Like really fast...

• The Big Ten is unwatchable! Michigan State beat Illinois last night 51-41. At half it was 24-20. Those are disgusting numbers. And it's not like they are playing 40 possession games. Yes, their games are relatively slow to the rest of the nation but still Illinois shot 30% from the field, and 18% on 4-22 shooting from three-point range. But what was absolutely disgusting was there 7-19 performance from the charity stripe. And not to take anything away from 0-9 MSU's performance from three-point range. But they did hit 19-25 from the free throw line. The Big Ten needs to learn how to shoot. (BTW- Great Big Ten game tonight Indiana @ Wisconsin, ha)

• Big Republican debate last night, more of a Romney vs McCain shoot off with two random guys sitting next to them.

• The "Thrilla In Cali" is tonight where Hilary Clinton will take on Barack Obama in a steel cage match on CNN.

• Lots of good college basketball on tonight. I'll give you a preview on two of the games later today, USC vs 'Zona and Wisconsin vs Indiana.

I'm off to the track today. Remember I have a pick four at Gulfstream today, 1.31 Gulfstream P4. Wish me luck and I'll wish you luck!

1.30 Wednesday Musings

Here are your Wednesday Musings…

• Big win for George Mason last night in D.C. versus VCU. This moves George Mason to one game back in the CAA standings behind VCU. This was a tough game to watch on the eyes as both teams had incredible defensive struggles. However, the Patriots were able to make the big shots down the stretch.

• Miami loses another devastating road game at Wake Forest 70-68. Wake Forest’s Ishmael Smith hit a nice jumper with eight seconds left to give the Demon Deacons the win. That is Miami’s fourth lost in their last five games, and they need to start winning in the ACC to bring merit to their bubble status. They still do have an attractive RPI in the 30’s though.

• In what seemed to be a thriller SE Missouri St. defeated Austin Peay 121-116 in three overtimes. The third overtime had a combined 35 points which is a ton in five minutes of overtime. No one really got to see it but I bet it was a great game.

• Tennessee won in Tuscaloosa for the first time in a long while. Alabama just could not stop the drive and dish game of Bruce Pearl’s Volunteers who went 12-27 from three point land. Chris Lofton led the charge scoring 23 points on 5-9 three-point shooting.

• The Miami Heat have given up on the season. They lost 117-87 at home versus a Garnett & Allen-less Boston Celtics. When the great Cal Bear, Leon Powe, leads the Celtics with a 25 point and 11 board night you know something is wrong. Now the Heat get to travel north to Orlando, probably without Dwayne Wade and have opened at a astronomical 16.5 point underdog to the Magic.

• John McCain wins a big Republican primary in Florida which should propel him to a win on Super Tuesday. Right now many people are only concerned about whom he will pick as his running mate. Unless your name is Rush Limbaugh then you are still trying to get Romney to win. Tonight is also a big Republican debate at the Reagan Library in California.

• Hilary Clinton won the “Don’t Call Florida A Primary” Democratic Primary convincingly. No one was able to campaign there, but as Chris Matthews said last night those signs in the Clinton crowd weren’t handmade. What will be interesting is to see what happens next Tuesday, not last night in the Democratic race.

• The two big losers of last night were John Edwards and Rudy Giuliani who both have said that they will be ending their campaign for their respective parties. Not really surprising or big news. The big news will be who they will end up endorsing. Most people think Giuliani will endorse McCain, but no one has a clue who Edwards will endorse.

• Federal Reserve has a big decision to make today, whether to cut a quarter point or half point. Regardless I don’t think the market is going to have a good day. If they only cut a quarter point expect a 2% dip in all three major indices.

That’s all I have for you today. Maybe I’ll find a money play at Gulfstream sometime later today.

1.31 Gulfstream Pick Four Play

Lets see what we can do with Thursday's late and only pick four at Gulfstream Park. It starts in race six and we will play it for 50 cents and see if we can get some oddball long shots to make it a worthwhile play.

Race 6 – 7 Furlongs, Maiden 40K

The first leg of this pick four is a complete crap shoot to me. The two fillies that intrigue me most are both Canadian shippers from Woodbine. Sarcasm and Make My Money are both coming from up north and are trained by Josie Carrol and Brian Lynch respectively. They both showed they can run tough and finished solid in all their starts in Canada. I think a trip down to the warm weather of Gulfstream can only do these fillies good. First time start C.R. Princess also intrigues me because she is from Officer and Officer lets them fly to start their careers hitting at a 19% win clip. Javier Castellano gets the mount and this filly has shown great speed in training. The other two fillies I used are both trying to break through the maiden ranks after multiple tries Satan's Plume and Spring Mambo. So we will spread this race using the 3,4,6,8, and 10.

Race 7 – 1 Mile (Turf), Allowance $49.5K n3x

I also spread in this turf event because I really had no conviction on any horse. I really like Drilling For Oil a Ken McPeek trained five year old and the always reliable Elvis Trujillo is abroad. He has great tactical speed but is not the greatest at the mile distance being 0 for 2. But Drilling for Oil is not the only horse that has shown a weakness at the mile distance. I three other horses in this race as well. Parading is a game five year old and unlike others in the race shows a liking to the mile distance. Westmoreland is another intriguing six year old with Rene Douglas aboard. He has shown a versatility to win from the lead or the back of the pack on the turf. The last of the four I used is I'm Only Laughing a six year old trained by Tim Hills and has Eiber Coa in the reins. He has only started twice on the turf both times at the mile distance and has shown game efforts in both starts. Four deep in the seventh with the 1,2,7, and 8.

Race 8 – 7 Furlongs, Allowance 43K n2x

Race eight brings about my single play for this pick four sequence. I really like the four year old colt Tsali. He is a lightly raced four year old with only six career starts and two wins. He is dropping a bit in class too from a 62.5K optional claimer two weeks ago at Gulfstream Park where he showed a game effort finished third. But if you watch the race you can tell he had a rough start being checked once at the beginning by jockey Joe Bravo. Yet still the colt fought back from a five length deficit to finish third back a length and a quarter. Tsali has shown the ability to run from off the pace which should do wonders in this race with four of the other five horses looking to take the lead. I’m expecting and hoping for a :22 flat first quarter which should be easy for Tsali to go after. Just to add some more glory to this horse, it’s his second race off a six month layoff and he has been working incredibly sharp. The icing on the cake is Nike Zito trains Tsali and is hitting at a 23% clip during the meet, currently the hottest trainer at Gulfstream. So cheers to my single the 2, Tsali.

Race 9 – 5 Furlongs (Turf), Maiden Claiming 25K

I don’t really have anything to say about this race because I have no past performances in front of me, which equals not good. So I am going to use three ponies here with the 3,5, and 10. And three great names at that with Amarone, Investaknot, and Tzintzitcha. What a name Tzintzitcha, how do you even pronounce that?

.50 Cent Pick Four Play: 3,4,6,8,10 / 1,2,7,8 / 2 / 3,5,10 à $30